Did the bottom happen?
A key question that investors are asking is will the low of the current market cycle be 2,187?
There are certainly a lot of unknowns as the first quarter earning season is in full swing.
Valuing the S&P 500?
150 x 17 = 2,550
$SPY closed at 275.63, April 13, 2020
Many market strategists & equity research analysts look to past market dislocations for patterns. On Mad Money, Jim Cramer provided an excellent summary of several previous bear markets all of which failed to retest the bottom once 50% of the drawdown had been retraced. Of course, looking to past might not be as relevant in this instance because of the uniqueness of the COVID-2019 situation.
1962 DJIA Bear Market
1970 DJIA Bear Market
2008-2009 DJIA Bear Market
2020 S&P 500 Bear Market
Image sources via CNBC
Checking out some pre-market metrics including
Will the S&P 500 continue its current uptrend? Or, is this simply a bear market rally?
8:30am ET. The US Labor Department reported 6.6 million Americans filed first-time unemployment claims in the week ended April 4, 2020 versus a consensus estimate of 5.0 million.
This brings the total number of jobless claims over the past three weeks to more than 16 million.
This contrasts to the six-month period prior to a shutdown where, U.S. nonfarm payroll growth had averaged 221,000 a month.
The consensus is for the S&P 500 to retest the March 23, 2020 lows. More dire forecasts indicate a coronavirus low in the 1500 - 1800 range. Factors to consider:
Considering these factors, the most likely scenario is that the S&P 500 index falls to 1333.
Sources: Barchart.com; Barron's.com