§ 2.8%: GDP expanded 2.8% in 3Q09 vs. contracting 6.4% in 1Q09
§ 7.2M: U.S. economy has lost 7.2 million jobs
§ 10%: November 2009 unemployment #
§ 17: Following the previous recession which concluded in November 2001, companies continued to slash payrolls for 17 of the next 21 months
§ 11k: # of payroll jobs lost in November which was the smallest decline since late 2007
§ 474k: first-time unemployment 4 week moving average
§ 86%: business services’ share of job market (vs. manufacturing jobs)
§ $237.6B: the amount (30%) of rescue package money ($787B) invested in the economy since February 2009
Labor-market recovery cycle:
1. Less people are terminated as businesses find solid footing. What is the latest “first-time unemployment” number?
2. When demand increases, business productivity increases. What is the latest productivity number?
3. When new growth is evident, more part-time workers are hired. What is the latest temporary job number?
4. In a growing economy, full-time positions are plentiful. What is the unemployment rate?
Forecasts are typically incorrect:
Often too optimistic at the top, forecasts (and investors) are also frequently too pessimistic at the bottom.
§ In July 2007 forecasters said that housing prices wouldn’t decline.
§ In May 2009 forecasters said the economy would grow at about a 1 percent rate in the second half of 2009. That’s likely to be off by a factor of three.
Source(s): Newsweek, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Roundtable