The consensus is for the S&P 500 to retest the March 23, 2020 lows. More dire forecasts indicate a coronavirus low in the 1500 – 1800 range. Factors to consider:
Duration of U.S. economic shutdown
Effectiveness of social distancing
Anti-viral treatment
Herd immunity
Consumer behavior
Small-business appetite for risk
Impact of Fiscal Intervention
Likelihood of virus resurface in the Fall 2020
Likelihood of vaccine in Fall 2021
U.S. November 2020 Election
Liquidity vs. solvency for a significant number of U.S. firms
Considering these factors, the most likely scenario is that the S&P 500 index falls to 1333.
