Where will the price of Natural Gas be on January 8, 2021?

July 8, 2020

Interesting article in today’s WSJ about the global natural gas industry.

Natural Gas (NG)

  • On June 25, 2020, natural-gas futures for July 2020 delivery closed at a 25 year low of $1.482 per million British thermal units.  And, this price represented the lowest June price every in the United States.  
  • On July 7, 2020, NG futures for August 2020 delivery closed at $1.876 which represents a 27% increase since June 25, 2020.  However, prices are still 23% below last year’s price and 34% down from July 2018 settlement.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

  • In March 2020, a record 9.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas was delivered to U.S. shipping terminals.  
  • However, in July this volume has fell by over 50% as more than 110 cargoes for export have been canceled.
  • Scrapped LNG exports will add 760 billion cubic feet to U.S inventory levels, which are currently 30% more than last year and 18% higher than the 5 year average.

Price Forecasts (Goldman Sachs)

  • Lowered October 2020 to $1.40 from $1.75
  • Noted that Pennsylvania prices could drop to $0.90
  • Predicts December 2020 and Winter 2021 prices of $3.50

Price Forecast (BofA):

  • Summer 2020 prices to average $1.75
  • 4Q 2020 prices to rise to $2.60
  • Winter 2021 prices to average $2.90

U.S. Natural Gas Prices